* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 08/08/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 34 35 36 37 39 40 40 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 26 30 32 33 34 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 23 28 28 30 31 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 22 25 26 25 18 13 17 17 17 12 18 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 2 0 1 0 2 -4 2 0 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 334 342 356 11 24 34 84 91 108 125 121 156 125 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.6 30.2 30.3 30.6 30.7 30.1 29.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 150 152 161 171 171 171 170 170 164 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 123 124 125 129 138 149 152 156 155 141 135 123 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 10 9 11 9 12 10 12 10 14 700-500 MB RH 54 55 52 55 54 52 57 53 54 49 57 50 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -9 -29 -21 -10 -40 -15 -36 -24 -61 -20 -56 -32 200 MB DIV 25 30 -13 -25 -3 -13 12 -3 11 0 14 0 -2 LAND (KM) 151 113 76 23 -34 29 94 149 29 -22 -90 -136 -196 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.5 30.0 30.6 31.0 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.5 79.9 80.2 80.8 81.4 83.1 85.0 87.0 89.0 90.6 92.1 93.0 94.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 5 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 52 23 9 3 19 3 24 59 2 41 39 36 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 19. 24. 29. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 08/08/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 08/08/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 08/08/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)