* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP072010 08/08/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 38 36 33 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 38 36 33 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 39 36 34 29 26 23 20 18 16 16 16 SHEAR (KT) 10 15 16 14 10 19 24 25 30 25 18 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 4 6 7 1 0 2 0 3 1 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 149 149 161 164 130 118 116 110 114 105 96 111 123 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 125 126 126 124 123 123 124 127 128 131 133 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 67 65 68 68 66 67 67 68 63 62 63 63 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 55 69 69 70 80 81 74 71 69 79 92 89 200 MB DIV 63 69 65 45 52 51 34 29 4 -6 2 9 -13 LAND (KM) 563 577 597 618 642 688 737 768 785 806 837 829 801 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.7 17.5 17.3 17.0 16.6 16.4 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.5 112.1 112.6 113.1 113.9 114.4 114.6 114.6 114.5 114.4 113.9 113.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 8 10 13 13 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -18. -23. -29. -33. -35. -33. -29. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010 ESTELLE 08/08/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010 ESTELLE 08/08/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY