* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/09/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 36 39 40 42 45 46 47 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 36 39 40 42 45 46 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 32 33 34 37 43 49 SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 13 17 21 28 26 29 13 9 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 0 -1 -1 2 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 211 206 201 180 191 199 192 214 217 247 322 357 326 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 130 131 132 134 136 137 139 138 135 133 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 117 117 118 118 118 118 118 118 117 118 108 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 9 8 700-500 MB RH 51 47 49 48 46 50 48 51 45 44 47 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -10 -7 -6 -1 1 -2 -6 -13 -20 -17 16 21 200 MB DIV -9 0 1 24 40 33 35 15 18 4 9 36 25 LAND (KM) 2083 1999 1905 1822 1741 1608 1531 1501 1528 1609 1761 1600 1331 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.5 23.8 24.1 24.4 25.0 25.6 26.4 27.4 28.5 30.1 32.3 35.0 LONG(DEG W) 46.2 47.3 48.3 49.3 50.2 51.9 53.1 54.0 54.5 54.5 54.1 52.7 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 6 7 10 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 19 20 20 20 22 23 26 22 10 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 20. 21. 22. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/09/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/09/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/09/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)