* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 08/09/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 31 34 36 38 40 42 44 45 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 25 25 30 32 35 31 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 22 24 28 29 31 29 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 23 26 25 14 11 15 14 14 15 7 11 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 -4 1 3 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 336 347 2 11 360 45 106 108 122 130 143 126 149 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.6 30.6 30.1 29.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 150 152 167 171 171 171 170 170 158 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 124 125 127 131 144 150 152 156 153 142 132 114 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 10 9 11 9 14 9 15 9 14 700-500 MB RH 55 52 54 55 51 51 54 52 50 53 54 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 7 6 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -21 -10 1 -3 -14 -8 -21 -19 -21 -16 -40 -44 200 MB DIV 51 -2 -30 -4 7 -11 -3 1 -10 3 -16 -4 -13 LAND (KM) 151 105 55 -13 -81 87 106 108 -14 -28 -92 -153 -262 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.5 30.0 30.6 31.1 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 79.5 80.0 80.5 81.2 81.9 84.0 86.0 88.1 90.0 91.7 93.0 94.2 95.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 52 11 7 0 17 7 49 56 0 41 39 34 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 08/09/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 08/09/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 08/09/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)