* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP072010 08/09/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 30 28 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 30 28 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 33 30 28 24 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 14 16 14 12 16 22 30 27 29 21 20 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 7 5 1 2 -2 2 1 1 -1 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 134 147 145 156 116 112 104 110 107 102 92 97 130 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 127 128 126 125 125 126 126 128 130 132 132 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -50.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 68 69 72 71 70 73 73 73 66 63 58 61 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 8 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 67 71 69 62 67 70 62 65 63 77 79 80 200 MB DIV 51 53 47 45 60 33 49 20 7 -7 18 3 2 LAND (KM) 574 595 619 649 683 727 761 779 794 811 819 806 775 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.3 17.1 17.0 16.7 16.4 16.3 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 111.4 111.9 112.4 113.0 113.5 114.1 114.2 114.2 114.3 114.1 113.7 113.2 112.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 4 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 6 5 4 7 8 9 10 12 13 11 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -11. -12. -11. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -12. -16. -20. -26. -30. -32. -31. -28. -24. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010 ESTELLE 08/09/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010 ESTELLE 08/09/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY