* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/09/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 35 40 40 44 46 47 46 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 35 40 40 44 46 47 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 29 30 31 32 34 38 45 50 SHEAR (KT) 15 14 13 15 14 19 23 24 26 7 17 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 1 4 0 -2 -4 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 203 211 205 206 215 197 213 208 234 265 358 2 348 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 132 133 135 136 138 139 139 138 136 133 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 119 119 120 119 120 119 118 118 117 116 111 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 8 700-500 MB RH 49 47 46 46 47 45 47 45 45 41 44 51 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -5 -4 -1 0 2 -5 -1 -17 -11 -22 17 70 200 MB DIV -10 -3 18 25 31 43 41 33 0 0 -11 15 54 LAND (KM) 1950 1858 1768 1688 1611 1493 1433 1421 1453 1523 1652 1582 1346 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.2 23.5 23.8 24.0 24.7 25.4 26.4 27.3 28.4 29.9 31.9 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 47.6 48.6 49.6 50.5 51.4 53.0 54.1 55.0 55.4 55.6 55.5 54.7 52.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 7 9 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 22 24 26 23 21 22 24 13 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 15. 15. 19. 21. 22. 21. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/09/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/09/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/09/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)