* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 08/09/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 21 21 25 27 32 35 38 40 43 43 V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 21 23 29 32 37 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 18 22 25 26 27 26 26 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 28 24 15 14 11 14 10 12 9 10 4 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 0 2 0 1 -3 2 -3 -2 1 -3 7 SHEAR DIR 346 3 17 13 19 78 110 126 144 122 120 97 36 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.5 30.4 30.5 30.7 30.4 29.8 29.0 27.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 149 152 160 171 171 171 170 164 150 133 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 125 127 131 139 154 156 156 149 136 124 110 97 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 9 11 10 13 10 14 10 14 10 700-500 MB RH 49 49 51 50 46 51 47 52 49 52 49 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 9 7 7 6 4 2 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -7 8 0 -21 0 -32 -9 -48 -17 -69 -27 -5 200 MB DIV -2 -16 -18 0 -13 20 -13 21 -5 0 -7 9 14 LAND (KM) 150 85 19 -84 -14 9 67 6 -81 -138 -194 -285 -405 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.4 31.0 31.5 32.2 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 79.6 80.3 81.0 82.1 83.2 85.5 87.7 89.8 91.4 92.9 93.9 95.0 95.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 45 9 1 17 1 15 18 0 39 36 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 21. 27. 32. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 1. 5. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 23. 23. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 08/09/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 08/09/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 08/09/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)