* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP072010 08/09/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 30 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 30 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 34 32 29 25 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 15 17 21 21 23 30 29 22 17 9 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 4 -2 0 0 -4 -2 3 0 0 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 137 132 127 120 123 116 113 100 99 96 97 162 167 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 127 127 126 125 126 129 130 133 134 133 132 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 70 68 67 68 70 72 68 64 59 60 60 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 65 60 60 62 62 58 53 50 51 63 62 68 200 MB DIV 42 43 49 54 63 20 59 -1 13 6 11 12 -7 LAND (KM) 607 628 652 679 707 749 768 785 794 791 796 789 761 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.6 16.4 16.1 16.1 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.3 112.7 113.2 113.6 114.0 114.0 113.8 113.6 113.1 112.4 112.2 112.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 1 1 2 2 3 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 4 4 8 9 10 12 12 16 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -12. -12. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -12. -17. -22. -27. -29. -29. -26. -24. -23. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010 ESTELLE 08/09/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010 ESTELLE 08/09/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY