* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/09/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 42 46 48 50 53 55 57 55 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 42 46 48 50 53 55 57 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 41 44 46 47 49 54 63 69 SHEAR (KT) 11 11 14 14 14 18 21 28 20 13 11 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -4 -5 -4 4 -1 2 -1 -3 -2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 202 179 209 220 211 197 205 207 226 236 316 320 302 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 133 135 134 135 136 138 138 138 141 141 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 119 119 120 119 119 118 118 118 118 123 125 112 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 50 46 47 48 48 46 52 49 50 45 52 59 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -9 -5 -3 2 -2 3 -7 -9 -12 0 16 11 200 MB DIV -2 5 13 19 32 42 26 19 17 21 24 19 36 LAND (KM) 1918 1832 1748 1673 1600 1508 1456 1478 1527 1645 1647 1450 1265 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.5 23.8 24.0 24.2 25.0 25.8 26.9 28.0 29.5 31.4 33.7 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 48.0 49.0 49.9 50.8 51.6 53.0 54.1 54.7 55.1 55.1 54.3 51.6 47.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 9 13 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 22 24 25 22 23 25 15 8 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 23. 25. 27. 25. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/09/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/09/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/09/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)