* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/09/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 47 50 53 53 53 55 54 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 47 50 53 53 53 55 54 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 40 44 46 48 51 54 59 62 SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 12 12 18 21 29 22 27 18 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -5 -3 0 -3 0 -6 0 -4 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 195 221 236 210 205 221 203 221 221 239 236 250 233 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 134 134 134 135 135 136 139 140 136 126 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 120 119 118 116 116 116 116 119 120 117 108 100 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 45 47 48 48 51 51 55 53 54 52 53 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 11 9 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -12 -9 -6 -11 -22 -20 -42 -42 -51 -42 -29 -23 200 MB DIV 9 1 11 33 35 18 27 12 25 10 35 22 25 LAND (KM) 1820 1744 1671 1640 1613 1622 1702 1813 1897 1745 1567 1444 1381 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.8 25.3 26.3 27.5 28.6 29.7 31.2 33.1 34.8 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 49.1 50.0 50.9 51.5 52.0 52.5 52.4 51.9 51.0 49.8 48.2 46.2 43.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 8 10 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 21 20 18 19 19 15 10 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. 2. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 23. 23. 25. 25. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/09/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/09/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/09/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)