* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 08/09/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 35 40 42 45 47 50 51 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 35 40 42 34 29 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 29 31 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 21 14 14 15 15 8 15 12 18 8 13 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 -1 -1 1 -2 3 -2 0 -3 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 6 1 355 44 94 100 104 111 105 120 96 135 148 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.9 31.4 31.5 30.8 29.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 160 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 153 155 155 153 154 156 162 169 170 153 132 116 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -50.3 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 11 11 12 11 13 11 14 11 15 700-500 MB RH 62 59 55 56 62 55 60 56 58 52 51 45 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 7 7 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -17 -31 -14 9 -19 -15 -54 -32 -80 -56 -115 -43 200 MB DIV 18 20 -1 -15 19 -19 6 -2 6 -11 5 1 14 LAND (KM) 68 133 192 244 304 409 261 133 20 -49 -147 -257 -386 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.2 27.0 27.9 29.0 30.0 31.1 32.2 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 82.6 83.3 83.9 84.6 85.3 86.7 88.1 89.2 90.3 90.9 91.6 91.8 91.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 31 27 64 71 51 22 51 6 50 45 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 28. 34. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 15. 20. 22. 25. 27. 30. 31. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 08/09/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 08/09/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 08/09/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)