* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP072010 08/09/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 28 27 22 18 16 19 23 28 30 34 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 28 27 22 18 16 19 23 28 30 34 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 32 31 28 24 21 18 17 17 17 19 20 SHEAR (KT) 21 27 29 29 26 30 29 24 16 5 1 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -2 0 1 0 0 3 1 -1 -1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 116 111 112 116 111 105 93 80 71 46 115 118 117 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 134 133 133 134 137 138 138 137 135 131 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 3 4 4 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 69 71 73 71 72 69 67 71 69 70 68 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 9 10 11 13 14 15 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 64 58 61 57 62 58 62 64 75 86 87 100 108 200 MB DIV 56 43 49 39 32 42 14 39 26 29 26 29 12 LAND (KM) 625 650 676 696 717 732 765 771 768 761 716 696 664 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.6 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.3 16.9 16.6 16.4 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 112.7 113.0 113.3 113.6 113.7 113.6 113.1 112.5 112.3 112.5 113.2 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 3 2 1 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 6 5 7 11 13 14 15 12 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -14. -14. -11. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -8. -13. -17. -19. -16. -12. -7. -5. -1. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010 ESTELLE 08/09/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010 ESTELLE 08/09/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY