* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/10/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 34 38 41 44 48 54 58 61 62 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 34 38 41 44 48 54 58 61 62 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 32 33 34 35 38 44 54 63 68 SHEAR (KT) 16 15 15 15 19 24 25 14 10 4 13 16 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 0 1 -3 0 -3 -2 -1 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 220 230 219 199 198 196 193 205 209 244 233 233 239 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 26.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 135 134 135 136 138 138 138 139 140 125 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 119 118 118 118 118 118 118 122 123 109 99 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -54.1 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 6 4 700-500 MB RH 44 47 46 45 45 48 44 46 45 51 55 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -10 -9 -10 -14 -11 -20 -20 -10 18 20 33 31 200 MB DIV 2 12 33 42 35 29 30 8 15 55 34 63 49 LAND (KM) 1703 1624 1548 1502 1460 1420 1447 1499 1627 1610 1413 1187 989 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.7 25.1 25.9 27.0 28.1 29.6 31.6 34.0 36.4 39.0 LONG(DEG W) 50.3 51.3 52.2 52.9 53.6 54.6 55.2 55.6 55.5 54.8 52.2 49.3 47.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 9 13 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 25 26 25 22 22 25 16 7 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 18. 24. 28. 31. 32. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/10/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/10/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/10/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)