* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 08/10/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 45 51 52 54 57 57 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 45 51 52 43 32 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 38 42 47 52 45 33 29 27 SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 9 3 10 13 14 14 12 9 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 356 343 21 81 102 98 116 89 92 72 98 85 121 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.6 31.1 31.6 31.7 31.2 30.5 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 169 169 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 153 154 152 153 153 156 164 170 170 161 148 137 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.5 -50.7 -49.9 -50.5 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 12 10 14 10 16 10 15 700-500 MB RH 61 56 57 60 61 57 58 58 60 58 53 62 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 9 8 8 5 4 4 2 4 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -34 -21 3 -3 -19 -26 -45 -51 -84 -69 -55 -29 200 MB DIV 28 3 -16 16 -6 -16 -16 -3 -9 -11 13 11 38 LAND (KM) 100 161 215 257 305 392 266 124 77 -30 -138 -256 -362 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.7 25.7 26.3 27.3 28.4 29.7 30.8 31.9 32.8 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 82.7 83.4 84.0 84.6 85.2 86.5 87.5 88.3 88.5 88.3 87.6 86.5 84.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 26 48 67 73 44 30 51 9 32 37 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 33. 37. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 26. 27. 29. 32. 32. 33. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 08/10/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 08/10/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 08/10/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)