* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP072010 08/10/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 24 22 24 24 28 32 33 34 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 24 22 24 24 28 32 33 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 25 23 20 18 16 15 15 16 17 DIS SHEAR (KT) 23 28 25 28 34 32 32 23 13 8 13 11 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 -1 -1 0 0 2 2 -1 -2 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 101 110 108 103 99 100 85 75 71 81 99 114 N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 132 133 133 135 136 135 136 133 128 122 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -51.0 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 2 4 5 3 3 2 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 69 72 72 71 69 64 65 64 64 67 61 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 12 12 14 16 16 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 66 65 64 57 57 55 60 78 94 113 104 N/A 200 MB DIV 43 43 43 16 23 18 0 7 19 17 30 12 N/A LAND (KM) 652 672 692 717 741 760 771 767 740 736 722 685 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.2 16.9 16.6 16.6 17.0 17.5 18.2 19.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.2 113.5 113.6 113.7 113.5 113.1 113.0 113.3 114.1 114.8 115.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 3 5 5 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 4 5 8 11 13 13 10 8 2 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -8. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 11. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -6. -6. -2. 2. 3. 4. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010 ESTELLE 08/10/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010 ESTELLE 08/10/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY