* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/10/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 43 49 53 57 60 63 62 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 43 49 53 57 60 63 62 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 34 35 37 40 46 53 59 61 SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 21 23 24 24 17 4 9 14 29 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 -1 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 226 212 198 192 196 179 185 173 207 19 304 262 259 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 134 136 137 138 139 140 139 137 133 127 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 120 119 119 120 119 120 120 119 118 116 112 104 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -54.2 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 6 4 700-500 MB RH 46 46 45 43 44 47 42 42 42 50 57 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 6 7 10 9 12 12 13 13 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -11 -10 -9 -11 -4 -13 -5 2 -6 -11 4 0 200 MB DIV 4 15 40 48 40 36 11 38 26 21 19 11 9 LAND (KM) 1615 1547 1483 1436 1393 1355 1372 1433 1531 1496 1321 1144 973 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.7 25.0 25.9 26.9 28.2 29.7 31.7 34.0 36.4 38.5 LONG(DEG W) 51.2 52.1 52.9 53.6 54.3 55.4 56.1 56.7 57.2 57.3 56.0 52.9 48.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 9 11 15 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 27 27 26 25 22 24 17 12 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 32. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/10/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/10/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/10/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)