* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 08/10/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 44 49 52 54 57 58 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 44 49 43 33 29 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 32 34 39 43 47 44 33 29 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 17 15 9 7 8 16 12 16 3 9 1 3 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -2 0 -3 -2 0 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 336 19 58 71 74 95 96 102 105 100 214 126 232 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.7 31.1 31.6 31.7 31.3 30.8 30.2 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 170 170 171 170 170 169 169 169 169 170 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 153 156 157 158 159 165 169 169 161 151 141 138 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 13 11 14 12 14 10 700-500 MB RH 56 56 62 59 54 59 53 58 51 54 49 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 9 7 8 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -23 0 -11 -28 -18 -51 -36 -83 -66 -91 -30 -55 200 MB DIV -3 -10 3 -13 -12 5 -5 1 -10 14 17 32 31 LAND (KM) 114 166 207 242 295 284 143 51 -22 -115 -178 -289 -335 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.6 25.7 26.1 26.4 27.5 28.5 29.6 30.6 31.6 32.3 33.1 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 82.7 83.4 84.0 84.7 85.4 86.9 88.0 88.8 88.8 88.6 87.9 86.8 85.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 7 8 8 7 5 5 5 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 24 37 62 56 38 54 6 33 34 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 29. 32. 33. 34. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 08/10/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 08/10/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 08/10/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)