* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP072010 08/10/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 31 29 32 38 38 33 26 18 10 7 12 14 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 -3 -7 -2 1 0 -2 -5 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 101 100 96 101 104 91 82 76 74 86 80 96 82 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 133 134 134 138 139 141 142 141 140 138 134 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 2 2 3 5 5 5 6 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 69 69 67 64 67 68 68 71 71 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 7 7 8 9 9 12 11 13 13 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 70 62 60 51 51 52 52 61 68 67 73 82 84 200 MB DIV 36 27 11 12 31 1 23 12 36 33 53 23 6 LAND (KM) 691 716 741 753 765 777 803 816 783 750 727 692 635 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.4 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.5 16.1 15.8 15.7 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 113.3 113.5 113.7 113.7 113.6 113.0 112.6 112.0 111.3 111.0 111.1 111.8 112.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 8 10 11 14 14 17 19 19 17 13 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -15. -14. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 6. 5. 8. 8. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -14. -19. -18. -16. -11. -7. -4. -4. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010 ESTELLE 08/10/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010 ESTELLE 08/10/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY