* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/10/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 42 46 49 55 60 64 66 61 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 42 46 49 55 60 64 66 61 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 35 36 38 43 50 58 62 62 SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 20 18 23 22 16 4 11 21 30 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 -5 -4 -3 0 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 215 206 199 206 201 186 195 184 146 214 216 236 235 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.2 26.1 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 135 137 138 138 138 139 137 129 117 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 119 118 119 119 119 119 120 120 113 102 90 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -53.0 -54.3 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 7 5 3 700-500 MB RH 47 45 43 46 46 43 46 45 49 54 54 53 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 10 10 9 9 10 12 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -16 -13 -16 -16 -14 -21 -6 5 20 25 27 19 200 MB DIV 18 18 34 39 38 44 0 30 27 22 50 30 15 LAND (KM) 1615 1559 1507 1478 1453 1457 1505 1612 1608 1412 1179 1002 960 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.5 24.8 25.2 25.6 26.7 27.9 29.5 31.4 33.8 36.2 38.6 40.7 LONG(DEG W) 51.4 52.2 52.9 53.5 54.0 54.8 55.3 55.6 55.5 53.9 51.0 47.7 44.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 6 7 9 11 15 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 26 25 23 22 25 17 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 16. 19. 25. 30. 34. 36. 31. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/10/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/10/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/10/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)