* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 08/10/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 40 45 47 51 52 55 54 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 40 45 38 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 29 33 36 39 35 30 28 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 17 9 5 6 12 13 13 12 13 11 9 11 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 0 2 0 -1 1 -2 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 3 69 115 64 83 125 84 101 66 101 86 215 200 SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.7 31.1 31.3 31.3 30.4 29.0 27.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 171 171 171 171 171 171 170 170 170 150 127 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 158 159 160 160 162 167 170 167 148 124 105 95 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -50.9 -51.0 -50.5 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 -50.5 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 12 9 15 9 17 9 14 7 700-500 MB RH 57 61 61 54 57 57 58 56 54 52 56 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 8 8 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -4 -8 -25 -24 -29 -40 -43 -78 -31 -15 -60 -60 200 MB DIV -11 -1 -17 -12 0 -4 -3 -15 -4 2 9 -2 18 LAND (KM) 136 193 245 325 356 190 91 62 -25 -144 -269 -410 -499 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.4 26.7 27.5 28.3 29.1 30.0 31.0 31.9 32.9 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 83.0 83.9 84.7 85.7 86.7 88.6 90.3 91.8 93.1 94.4 95.5 96.5 97.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 31 63 55 36 31 40 9 51 43 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 22. 26. 27. 30. 29. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 08/10/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 08/10/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 08/10/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)