* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP072010 08/10/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 31 34 39 39 36 31 22 12 8 9 14 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -6 -4 0 1 0 -4 -3 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 98 97 99 103 100 88 81 45 71 74 86 86 82 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 135 136 136 139 141 143 142 142 141 138 134 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 71 70 69 68 70 71 71 75 73 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 12 12 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 57 54 47 50 49 57 57 74 73 71 78 87 84 200 MB DIV 43 15 26 33 13 5 11 24 27 34 23 23 11 LAND (KM) 696 711 726 737 748 785 800 765 722 689 675 680 618 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.2 15.9 15.7 15.6 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.0 113.0 112.9 112.8 112.4 111.8 111.1 110.5 110.3 110.5 111.3 111.8 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 18 16 15 15 22 24 26 26 24 21 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -11. -6. -2. 1. 3. 5. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010 ESTELLE 08/10/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010 ESTELLE 08/10/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY