* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 08/10/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 25 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 31 30 27 29 25 21 15 13 9 9 5 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 84 83 86 95 99 111 115 113 103 101 127 185 196 SST (C) 28.1 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.1 25.4 24.7 24.8 25.1 25.5 26.0 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 134 130 129 125 117 110 110 113 117 122 126 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 81 77 76 74 72 64 57 51 50 46 43 40 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 55 63 63 58 57 40 46 32 37 43 44 40 200 MB DIV 43 51 70 47 3 -7 -12 4 -4 -22 -13 -24 -30 LAND (KM) 345 403 467 448 460 592 748 899 1060 1217 1368 1523 1663 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.5 19.3 19.1 18.7 18.2 17.7 17.3 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.8 109.8 110.9 112.0 114.4 116.5 118.5 120.2 121.7 123.1 124.6 126.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 11 11 11 11 9 9 8 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 10 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 08/10/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 08/10/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY