* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/10/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 37 42 47 52 58 63 67 63 57 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 37 42 47 52 58 63 67 63 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 40 45 51 57 59 54 SHEAR (KT) 14 15 18 18 20 19 17 11 6 6 28 42 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -4 -1 -3 -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 198 204 209 201 180 195 167 162 87 279 242 251 250 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.2 26.5 24.9 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 136 137 138 138 139 139 136 128 120 105 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 120 120 120 119 120 120 117 111 103 90 75 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -53.5 -55.0 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 8 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 46 45 46 46 46 44 44 44 53 59 53 47 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 12 13 16 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -18 -18 -20 -19 -32 -22 -11 24 16 25 0 -19 200 MB DIV 25 32 38 43 41 5 5 43 35 60 17 11 -19 LAND (KM) 1572 1520 1472 1450 1433 1446 1499 1608 1431 1206 990 724 545 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.6 25.0 25.6 26.1 27.2 28.6 30.3 32.5 35.1 37.8 40.2 42.1 LONG(DEG W) 51.9 52.7 53.4 54.0 54.6 55.4 56.2 56.8 57.0 56.0 54.4 52.4 50.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 7 9 10 12 14 14 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 24 22 24 24 23 14 10 8 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 5. 2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 6. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 17. 22. 28. 33. 37. 33. 27. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/10/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/10/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/10/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)