* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 08/10/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 30 34 40 45 48 53 56 58 58 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 30 34 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 34 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 11 8 5 14 20 11 14 3 8 5 8 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 -4 0 -3 -3 0 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 57 90 72 84 109 117 119 109 100 303 150 218 232 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.8 31.2 31.6 31.4 30.3 29.4 29.0 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 171 171 171 171 170 169 170 157 150 154 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 158 161 161 163 169 170 165 143 130 123 125 128 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.1 -50.0 -49.6 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 12 10 13 11 15 11 14 10 11 700-500 MB RH 61 58 53 55 57 51 55 46 50 44 52 54 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -11 -27 -26 -17 -49 -30 -91 -69 -72 -37 -67 -32 200 MB DIV -11 -13 -12 -10 4 -16 1 -14 19 52 35 17 23 LAND (KM) 179 224 292 300 265 81 -20 -43 -179 -300 -402 -425 -446 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.2 26.5 27.1 27.7 28.7 29.8 30.7 31.9 33.1 34.2 34.5 34.5 LONG(DEG W) 83.7 84.6 85.4 86.3 87.1 88.6 89.8 90.4 90.8 90.3 89.1 87.4 85.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 9 8 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 66 55 49 52 66 50 51 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 27. 33. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 20. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 08/10/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 08/10/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 08/10/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)