* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 08/10/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 24 26 28 26 25 21 17 14 8 9 7 9 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 2 -1 -1 2 1 0 1 0 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 85 91 95 99 103 108 104 108 100 104 138 173 182 SST (C) 27.8 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.3 25.7 24.8 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.6 24.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 136 131 128 127 120 110 103 105 106 108 109 110 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 71 65 60 53 49 44 42 37 38 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 62 65 61 59 55 41 38 12 31 36 49 48 200 MB DIV 54 80 52 13 6 2 -11 -5 -1 -11 -8 -16 -14 LAND (KM) 363 436 436 435 467 625 743 884 1035 1174 1317 1421 1572 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.8 19.8 19.7 19.4 19.1 18.8 18.8 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.4 110.5 111.7 112.8 115.1 117.1 118.9 120.5 121.9 123.4 124.9 126.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 11 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 15. 17. 17. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -21. -24. -25. -26. -26. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 08/10/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 08/10/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY