* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052010 08/11/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 44 49 52 55 57 58 57 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 44 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 5 6 11 14 12 9 9 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 1 0 -5 1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 67 85 111 122 89 126 74 110 101 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.6 30.8 30.9 31.1 31.4 31.5 31.2 30.8 30.2 29.5 28.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 171 172 171 170 169 168 169 170 160 150 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 161 166 169 170 170 169 157 150 144 134 125 118 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -50.7 -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.2 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 11 12 9 15 10 17 10 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 54 56 58 56 58 53 52 49 54 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 9 9 8 7 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -30 -30 -14 -25 -38 -52 -89 -66 -55 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -28 -13 -3 4 2 -9 0 -18 2 10 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 186 225 266 234 182 4 -50 -91 -145 -197 -334 -455 -624 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.7 27.3 27.9 28.4 29.1 29.8 30.5 31.1 32.1 33.5 34.8 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 84.0 84.8 85.5 86.6 87.6 89.4 90.8 91.4 91.4 90.7 89.3 87.8 85.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 11 9 8 6 3 4 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 3 57 54 60 63 40 50 49 45 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 26. 31. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. 27. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052010 FIVE 08/11/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052010 FIVE 08/11/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052010 FIVE 08/11/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)