* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/11/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 36 39 43 50 56 61 63 63 61 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 36 39 43 50 56 61 63 63 61 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 32 34 38 44 52 59 62 59 SHEAR (KT) 18 21 18 20 24 19 14 3 7 15 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 0 0 -4 -2 -1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 216 211 190 189 201 192 141 309 255 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.1 26.3 24.2 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 135 137 138 138 137 138 135 127 118 99 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 118 118 119 119 119 118 119 117 109 100 84 71 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -52.7 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 10 9 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 48 49 46 46 48 50 52 60 62 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 11 12 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -21 -19 -16 -24 -26 -10 7 38 61 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 25 41 51 40 5 15 42 32 68 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1525 1490 1459 1453 1451 1483 1588 1627 1405 1200 917 694 514 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.0 25.4 26.0 26.5 27.6 29.2 31.0 33.4 35.9 38.5 40.7 42.4 LONG(DEG W) 52.6 53.2 53.8 54.3 54.7 55.3 55.6 55.9 55.3 53.8 51.8 50.7 50.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 7 9 11 13 14 13 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 22 23 24 26 19 10 3 2 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 20. 26. 31. 33. 33. 31. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/11/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/11/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/11/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)