* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052010 08/11/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 35 39 45 49 55 57 60 59 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 33 34 33 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 9 12 11 13 8 12 4 8 1 1 16 16 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 3 1 -1 -1 -1 -3 2 0 1 -5 3 SHEAR DIR 51 79 93 95 83 99 80 87 191 135 278 290 266 SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.9 31.1 31.5 31.6 31.5 31.1 30.4 29.5 28.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 171 171 171 169 169 169 169 171 161 149 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 163 165 166 167 169 168 165 159 149 135 125 113 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.3 -50.2 -49.9 -50.3 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 12 10 13 11 15 12 15 10 12 5 700-500 MB RH 54 55 58 58 53 59 54 56 48 54 57 63 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 7 6 4 3 2 4 3 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -35 -19 -27 -52 -26 -82 -61 -98 -32 -73 -14 -18 200 MB DIV -15 0 6 -5 -1 -8 -8 4 10 17 16 19 29 LAND (KM) 209 262 243 243 143 -4 -36 -29 -93 -224 -367 -546 -534 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.0 27.6 28.1 28.5 29.2 29.6 30.3 31.2 32.4 34.0 35.4 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 84.5 85.3 86.1 87.1 88.0 89.4 90.2 90.6 90.4 89.4 87.7 85.8 83.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 8 5 4 4 6 9 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 59 58 54 64 61 31 48 50 48 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 27. 31. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 9. 15. 19. 25. 27. 30. 29. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052010 FIVE 08/11/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052010 FIVE 08/11/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052010 FIVE 08/11/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)