* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/11/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 41 45 53 59 65 64 60 53 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 41 45 53 59 65 64 60 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 33 36 41 48 55 58 53 45 SHEAR (KT) 21 18 17 21 21 10 1 4 7 27 48 57 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 0 1 -2 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 -7 3 SHEAR DIR 212 212 192 188 196 178 241 360 293 237 233 226 227 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.4 26.5 24.4 20.3 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 136 138 138 139 138 138 131 121 102 80 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 118 119 119 120 119 120 114 104 87 72 65 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -52.5 -53.2 -54.3 -55.0 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 10 11 11 10 8 5 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 48 47 46 45 46 50 48 53 60 58 52 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 9 10 14 13 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -23 -19 -27 -35 -20 -13 20 43 57 22 4 -8 200 MB DIV 12 28 39 17 18 14 32 62 43 30 18 0 2 LAND (KM) 1481 1461 1445 1456 1470 1537 1663 1508 1274 984 727 546 441 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.5 25.9 26.5 27.0 28.4 30.1 32.4 35.1 37.9 40.6 42.9 44.8 LONG(DEG W) 53.3 53.8 54.3 54.6 54.9 55.4 55.6 55.4 54.1 51.7 49.8 48.7 48.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 8 10 13 16 16 14 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 23 24 26 24 12 5 0 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 19. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 7. 4. 0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 23. 29. 35. 34. 30. 23. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/11/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/11/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/11/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)