* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 08/11/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 37 35 34 35 28 17 14 9 10 11 17 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 0 2 3 3 -1 2 0 1 -1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 85 85 84 84 86 79 90 94 110 158 178 170 169 SST (C) 27.3 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.4 25.7 24.9 24.5 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.3 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 130 130 128 120 111 107 109 108 107 106 102 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 74 70 65 61 54 50 46 45 40 39 35 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 10 9 10 9 10 10 13 13 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 62 58 61 68 64 41 47 25 33 33 37 22 33 200 MB DIV 55 21 12 10 10 -19 -10 -5 -8 -9 -26 -22 -25 LAND (KM) 476 482 467 504 561 714 826 967 1111 1254 1362 1488 1638 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.1 18.9 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.7 111.7 112.8 113.8 115.9 117.7 119.4 121.0 122.6 124.3 126.2 128.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 7 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 3. 6. 7. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -18. -21. -20. -21. -25. -30. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 08/11/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 08/11/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY