* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052010 08/11/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 21 26 33 42 46 55 57 61 58 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 21 26 25 26 27 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 24 24 27 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 SHEAR (KT) 12 12 10 5 9 6 4 1 5 8 19 26 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 0 0 2 -3 2 -5 SHEAR DIR 77 112 115 95 92 135 34 73 27 277 299 261 271 SST (C) 30.8 30.9 31.2 31.4 31.6 31.6 31.4 31.2 30.9 30.1 29.0 28.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 171 171 170 169 168 167 169 172 153 138 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 167 164 169 171 170 168 159 153 151 146 130 117 105 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -50.5 -50.1 -50.6 -50.3 -50.9 -50.7 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 9 8 14 8 16 10 16 7 11 4 700-500 MB RH 57 60 58 52 57 57 58 55 54 57 60 58 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 7 7 5 5 4 4 4 5 7 10 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -11 -22 -48 -42 -51 -83 -78 -79 -39 -29 -5 -28 200 MB DIV -2 13 2 -9 -6 -2 -11 6 -20 18 25 20 -4 LAND (KM) 263 240 147 55 1 0 -66 -100 -133 -259 -485 -636 -579 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.5 30.3 31.0 31.3 31.6 32.8 35.0 36.8 38.7 LONG(DEG W) 86.4 87.2 87.9 88.7 89.5 90.2 90.1 90.1 90.2 89.2 87.1 85.1 82.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 7 4 3 2 4 11 13 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 50 63 63 64 2 0 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 5. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. 13. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. 1. 8. 17. 21. 30. 32. 36. 33. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052010 FIVE 08/11/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052010 FIVE 08/11/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052010 FIVE 08/11/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)