* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/11/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 41 48 54 53 51 49 47 38 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 41 48 54 53 51 49 47 38 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 33 36 41 44 45 43 40 37 SHEAR (KT) 21 19 20 23 21 21 17 24 31 33 33 60 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -4 -4 -5 -4 -7 -1 0 2 -7 4 SHEAR DIR 206 193 189 209 204 193 209 228 242 256 257 275 263 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.0 26.5 24.8 21.7 19.2 16.6 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 138 139 142 139 122 107 89 80 74 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 120 120 122 122 125 123 108 95 81 74 70 67 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -54.0 -53.5 -54.3 -55.1 -55.9 -55.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 6 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 48 47 48 50 53 56 60 65 64 58 56 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 5 5 7 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -24 -32 -46 -34 -23 -6 -7 -29 -70 -93 -132 -66 200 MB DIV 29 28 15 17 27 31 52 60 42 21 11 12 17 LAND (KM) 1436 1492 1551 1638 1727 1734 1436 1151 981 1059 1320 1529 1185 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.1 26.8 27.8 28.8 31.1 33.9 37.0 40.3 43.3 46.0 49.0 52.3 LONG(DEG W) 54.0 53.9 53.7 53.5 53.2 52.4 50.7 48.2 44.7 40.5 35.6 31.4 27.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 11 14 17 20 21 22 21 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 25 23 13 8 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 760 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 16. 18. 17. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -3. -7. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 24. 23. 21. 19. 17. 8. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/11/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/11/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/11/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)