* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052010 08/11/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 21 21 25 32 40 46 52 55 55 50 V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 21 20 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 24 22 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 12 12 10 11 9 3 5 7 3 14 14 30 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -3 0 -1 -1 -4 0 -4 3 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 109 101 94 91 96 345 33 318 342 289 281 264 282 SST (C) 30.9 31.1 31.4 31.6 31.7 31.5 31.0 30.6 30.2 29.8 29.4 28.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 170 170 169 169 169 168 169 164 157 149 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 167 167 170 170 169 165 154 144 139 133 128 122 113 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.4 -50.3 -50.2 -50.2 -50.1 -49.9 -49.8 -50.0 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 10 9 13 12 15 12 15 11 13 6 9 700-500 MB RH 60 58 54 58 58 52 55 48 53 51 56 49 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 8 8 7 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -26 -54 -44 -29 -87 -66 -100 -42 -75 -26 -13 -3 200 MB DIV 13 9 -3 2 -10 -9 0 10 24 17 12 0 -11 LAND (KM) 230 138 48 8 -15 -34 -122 -205 -248 -311 -413 -537 -524 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.5 29.9 30.7 31.5 32.2 32.8 33.5 34.3 35.3 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 87.3 88.1 88.8 89.3 89.8 90.2 90.0 89.6 88.9 88.0 86.9 85.6 83.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 60 61 71 8 0 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 22. 27. 32. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -4. 0. 7. 15. 21. 27. 30. 30. 25. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052010 FIVE 08/11/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052010 FIVE 08/11/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052010 FIVE 08/11/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)