* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912010 08/11/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 36 40 44 49 55 56 57 55 51 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 36 40 44 41 34 30 33 31 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 35 38 37 31 29 32 32 30 SHEAR (KT) 14 18 23 27 23 15 14 15 7 19 12 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -1 0 2 5 3 10 5 5 8 4 SHEAR DIR 43 60 67 77 76 52 68 38 24 29 33 40 54 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 28.5 26.2 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 154 156 157 159 161 162 162 161 151 127 119 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 9 8 3 0 700-500 MB RH 82 82 80 80 78 77 75 76 75 76 75 75 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 9 10 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 51 56 59 52 57 55 82 94 106 84 79 84 200 MB DIV 86 105 70 48 67 77 61 82 81 52 14 22 34 LAND (KM) 474 435 395 332 268 142 45 -9 -24 -24 159 278 425 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.7 15.9 17.0 18.2 19.3 20.1 20.4 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 97.0 97.3 97.5 97.6 97.7 98.0 98.8 100.1 101.9 104.4 107.2 110.2 113.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 6 8 9 12 13 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 12 14 13 41 42 7 51 48 29 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 440 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 24. 32. 38. 42. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 19. 24. 30. 31. 32. 30. 26. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912010 INVEST 08/11/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912010 INVEST 08/11/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED