* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912010 08/12/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 40 45 52 57 57 54 52 49 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 40 45 52 55 55 53 50 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 31 34 39 42 45 46 43 39 SHEAR (KT) 17 24 26 18 15 16 13 11 10 14 17 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 8 4 5 5 3 SHEAR DIR 65 68 79 85 71 60 49 95 50 51 65 69 96 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 28.7 26.8 26.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 158 159 160 161 161 161 161 153 133 127 124 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -51.1 -51.9 -50.6 -51.5 -50.6 -51.3 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 8 12 9 11 5 5 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 81 81 76 79 79 77 79 79 80 78 76 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 56 61 52 59 64 69 101 105 97 93 92 88 200 MB DIV 105 71 54 64 75 75 101 84 82 13 27 27 4 LAND (KM) 390 343 295 229 168 106 33 33 39 163 357 433 639 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.6 16.8 17.7 18.6 19.3 19.7 19.7 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 97.2 97.6 98.0 98.3 98.6 99.5 100.6 102.1 104.3 106.8 109.6 112.4 114.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 10 12 13 13 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 14 10 12 41 38 23 37 31 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 25. 33. 38. 41. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 15. 20. 27. 32. 32. 30. 27. 24. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912010 INVEST 08/12/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912010 INVEST 08/12/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY