* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912010 08/12/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 36 38 44 52 55 57 57 56 55 52 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 36 38 44 52 55 57 57 56 55 52 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 42 48 54 57 58 56 54 52 SHEAR (KT) 21 24 21 18 13 13 17 18 22 12 7 13 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -3 0 0 2 3 1 4 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 66 78 83 78 72 72 56 88 62 72 89 91 130 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.1 27.9 27.0 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 158 159 160 160 160 156 143 134 135 132 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 10 9 10 9 10 7 5 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 83 81 78 77 76 77 78 73 78 77 75 72 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 8 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 61 51 58 64 59 90 91 92 80 80 91 81 200 MB DIV 72 52 42 67 68 68 106 69 65 30 25 32 32 LAND (KM) 354 303 264 239 213 170 165 137 193 339 512 588 726 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.7 16.5 17.3 17.9 18.3 18.3 18.2 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 98.2 98.7 99.2 99.7 100.1 101.2 102.5 104.1 106.0 108.1 110.4 112.6 114.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 14 8 3 12 31 50 45 39 34 18 12 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 422 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 23. 30. 34. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 14. 22. 25. 27. 27. 26. 25. 22. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912010 INVEST 08/12/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912010 INVEST 08/12/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY