* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052010 08/12/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 25 27 31 39 45 51 53 56 58 58 V (KT) LAND 25 25 23 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 31 33 SHEAR (KT) 16 11 2 9 7 7 6 16 12 14 13 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -5 0 -6 -2 -2 -7 1 SHEAR DIR 111 98 50 59 65 341 324 328 346 352 342 337 11 SST (C) 31.7 31.7 31.7 31.7 31.5 31.1 30.7 30.8 31.2 31.6 31.7 31.7 31.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 168 168 169 168 168 168 168 169 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 168 169 169 168 163 155 145 146 155 165 169 169 169 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.3 -50.1 -49.9 -50.0 -49.9 -50.1 -50.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 15 11 10 14 11 15 11 13 9 12 9 11 700-500 MB RH 59 57 50 52 53 47 55 52 61 55 59 56 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 5 5 5 3 4 2 5 3 5 6 9 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -64 -98 -90 -63 -94 -42 -82 -32 -52 -13 -28 0 200 MB DIV 10 -9 -15 -15 7 -13 28 0 22 -5 19 -5 14 LAND (KM) 36 18 -24 -61 -100 -136 -205 -214 -166 -78 -26 22 33 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.2 30.6 31.0 31.3 31.9 32.5 32.4 32.0 31.2 30.7 30.2 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 89.1 89.2 89.2 89.1 88.9 88.3 87.5 86.8 86.4 86.2 86.9 87.7 88.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 33 31 29 36 0 0 37 48 49 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 14. 20. 26. 28. 31. 33. 33. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052010 FIVE 08/12/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052010 FIVE 08/12/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052010 FIVE 08/12/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)