* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912010 08/12/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 52 59 64 64 61 57 53 49 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 39 32 37 38 34 30 27 22 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 35 30 35 37 36 34 31 28 SHEAR (KT) 17 16 10 5 3 11 8 16 9 13 9 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 0 4 2 4 3 1 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 79 70 81 97 72 72 108 80 94 68 93 126 133 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.1 27.6 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 161 161 160 160 156 141 122 118 114 103 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 10 11 11 11 8 6 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 77 76 77 77 78 76 76 75 74 72 70 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 51 64 63 63 105 106 106 88 81 84 63 64 200 MB DIV 29 34 68 45 49 66 66 60 52 30 2 9 -14 LAND (KM) 175 127 79 45 22 -44 -24 80 282 282 425 600 784 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.4 18.4 19.2 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.6 20.4 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.1 100.5 101.0 101.5 102.6 104.2 106.2 108.4 110.9 113.3 115.7 118.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 41 43 42 40 37 53 51 39 16 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 415 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 24. 30. 32. 33. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 29. 34. 34. 31. 27. 23. 19. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912010 INVEST 08/12/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912010 INVEST 08/12/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED