* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912010 08/13/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 51 57 60 59 55 50 47 42 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 34 30 35 38 37 33 28 24 19 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 31 29 32 35 36 34 31 28 24 SHEAR (KT) 16 12 4 3 5 8 13 9 12 11 11 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -2 -1 2 0 3 1 3 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 64 63 94 60 53 116 68 80 79 87 103 125 140 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 27.8 25.9 25.2 24.7 23.5 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 160 160 159 158 143 123 116 111 98 95 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -50.9 -51.5 -50.9 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 11 13 9 11 5 4 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 79 77 80 77 76 73 74 70 64 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 56 60 63 81 104 99 93 80 80 57 56 50 200 MB DIV 37 43 37 64 63 65 56 36 20 11 8 -10 -18 LAND (KM) 115 69 27 16 -33 -39 46 250 252 404 564 763 971 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.3 19.2 19.8 20.3 20.7 20.8 20.8 20.6 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.4 100.9 101.3 101.9 102.5 103.9 105.8 108.1 110.6 113.2 115.7 118.2 120.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 44 42 32 18 51 52 29 20 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 439 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 23. 28. 29. 29. 28. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 27. 30. 29. 25. 20. 17. 12. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912010 INVEST 08/13/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912010 INVEST 08/13/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY