* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052010 08/13/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 33 41 50 54 60 63 65 66 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 32 30 33 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 31 29 32 36 SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 7 4 4 13 7 8 8 10 6 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 -1 0 -5 1 -1 0 0 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 87 102 100 85 343 312 329 329 335 14 341 8 341 SST (C) 31.7 31.7 31.6 31.4 31.2 30.8 30.9 31.2 31.7 31.7 31.5 31.4 31.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 168 168 168 167 167 168 169 170 170 169 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 168 169 165 160 156 145 147 156 169 170 170 166 161 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -49.8 -50.0 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -49.6 -49.7 -49.4 -49.8 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 14 16 11 15 11 13 10 13 10 11 8 700-500 MB RH 52 53 55 53 49 54 50 57 51 57 58 63 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 6 7 9 9 11 12 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR -86 -89 -65 -68 -106 -53 -85 -22 -55 -19 -38 2 -4 200 MB DIV -15 -1 0 -7 0 22 21 25 -6 12 16 15 6 LAND (KM) 0 -44 -88 -108 -131 -178 -169 -131 -14 33 -29 24 25 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.8 31.2 31.5 31.8 32.3 32.2 31.8 30.8 30.1 29.5 29.4 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 88.9 88.9 88.8 88.7 88.5 88.1 87.7 87.5 87.9 89.0 90.2 91.6 92.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 4 5 6 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 2 31 29 34 36 0 34 37 1 2 48 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 8. 16. 25. 29. 35. 38. 40. 41. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052010 FIVE 08/13/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052010 FIVE 08/13/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052010 FIVE 08/13/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)