* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912010 08/13/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 46 47 44 39 33 28 24 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 26 26 30 36 37 34 28 23 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 25 26 26 32 33 30 26 22 18 DIS SHEAR (KT) 12 6 2 5 10 10 13 13 12 9 10 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 1 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 64 93 100 42 56 77 89 71 72 72 76 87 145 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.5 26.3 24.3 23.7 22.9 21.9 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 159 160 159 150 127 106 100 92 81 79 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 11 12 10 10 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 83 81 79 83 80 75 75 73 70 68 61 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 67 64 81 99 107 100 85 69 53 41 30 26 200 MB DIV 36 46 67 81 65 55 50 16 1 1 1 -22 -23 LAND (KM) 108 69 11 -31 -34 1 208 144 253 393 576 770 902 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.2 17.9 18.5 19.1 20.1 21.0 21.6 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 101.4 101.9 102.4 103.1 103.8 105.5 107.6 109.9 112.3 114.8 117.2 119.7 121.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 42 39 30 50 52 0 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 423 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 8. 16. 23. 27. 28. 27. 25. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 21. 22. 19. 14. 8. 3. -1. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912010 INVEST 08/13/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912010 INVEST 08/13/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY