* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052010 08/13/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 26 33 38 45 49 55 54 55 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 12 7 5 9 6 11 12 16 11 10 19 27 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 0 -3 0 0 -4 -2 -4 -2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 94 106 79 333 37 303 330 325 328 276 300 265 265 SST (C) 31.7 31.6 31.4 31.1 30.7 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.4 30.5 30.4 29.9 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 169 169 169 168 168 167 165 168 165 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 168 166 161 155 148 137 134 134 137 135 138 133 124 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -49.9 -50.0 -50.2 -49.6 -50.4 -49.9 -50.6 -50.3 -50.6 -50.1 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 13 15 10 9 15 9 14 7 11 5 8 2 700-500 MB RH 53 53 50 46 54 59 62 62 54 50 49 49 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 3 4 4 4 4 6 8 8 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR -79 -65 -73 -107 -77 -63 -55 -29 -12 -20 -35 -20 -30 200 MB DIV -5 0 -20 6 5 17 31 19 -1 20 12 37 -13 LAND (KM) -33 -77 -117 -146 -183 -256 -298 -311 -261 -253 -270 -349 -449 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.1 31.5 31.9 32.3 33.0 33.3 33.3 32.8 32.7 32.9 33.6 34.5 LONG(DEG W) 88.8 88.8 88.8 88.7 88.5 87.8 87.2 86.2 85.7 85.6 85.8 85.7 84.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 2 0 3 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 30 31 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 8. 13. 20. 24. 30. 29. 30. 25. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052010 FIVE 08/13/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052010 FIVE 08/13/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052010 FIVE 08/13/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)