* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 08/14/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 18 16 16 20 24 25 25 26 25 17 13 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 3 0 3 2 3 0 0 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 109 98 95 83 82 84 78 69 75 92 104 109 155 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.4 25.5 24.1 22.5 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 140 138 134 132 131 129 126 117 103 87 79 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 74 75 72 70 74 73 71 69 62 56 55 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 7 6 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 61 58 58 51 49 69 68 69 51 47 31 22 200 MB DIV 31 34 21 38 17 13 26 5 3 -6 -17 -25 -18 LAND (KM) 659 640 623 616 593 547 539 557 598 660 700 785 834 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.2 19.7 20.5 21.5 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.1 110.2 110.5 110.7 111.2 112.2 113.1 114.2 115.6 117.3 119.1 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 16 18 16 12 11 4 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 26. 25. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -4. -8. -11. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -13. -17. -23. -27. -33. -36. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 08/14/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 08/14/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY