* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 08/14/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 16 20 23 25 24 26 24 20 12 14 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 0 1 4 2 2 -1 1 1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 97 94 83 81 79 80 73 71 82 109 105 132 141 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.5 25.9 24.8 23.1 21.9 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 138 136 134 131 130 127 121 110 93 80 75 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 75 73 72 73 74 74 70 66 59 57 53 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 9 8 10 8 7 5 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 57 56 50 49 60 70 73 69 50 37 25 13 200 MB DIV 38 22 39 21 23 6 26 1 8 -2 -16 -9 -9 LAND (KM) 644 628 612 607 582 531 524 541 594 631 677 748 774 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.3 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.4 21.4 22.4 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.2 110.3 110.5 110.7 111.4 112.3 113.4 114.6 116.2 117.8 119.5 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 19 17 15 11 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 24. 22. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -6. -11. -17. -21. -27. -32. -36. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 08/14/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 08/14/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY