* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 08/14/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 22 24 30 30 30 23 28 22 14 16 17 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 88 88 87 81 84 80 73 81 75 92 124 136 120 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.5 25.8 24.5 23.0 22.0 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 136 134 133 130 130 127 120 107 92 81 76 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 74 77 76 78 71 69 64 63 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 53 43 41 42 60 69 69 61 47 30 20 13 200 MB DIV 30 41 30 11 4 29 -3 1 -10 -25 -18 -21 -12 LAND (KM) 607 588 570 568 546 507 509 526 587 621 700 785 850 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.5 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.6 21.3 22.2 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.0 110.1 110.3 110.5 111.3 112.2 113.3 114.6 116.3 118.0 119.8 121.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 8 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 17 18 15 13 10 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 17. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -12. -18. -23. -28. -33. -38. -43. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 08/14/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 08/14/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY