* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 08/14/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 23 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 23 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 25 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 26 27 30 32 33 31 22 19 24 27 22 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 0 1 -1 1 0 -2 0 3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 85 82 71 74 73 78 81 92 88 100 88 96 112 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 139 139 137 136 136 135 130 124 120 122 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 80 80 78 76 72 68 67 61 56 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 6 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 43 34 29 26 36 39 51 59 47 48 40 37 22 200 MB DIV 60 51 30 8 23 45 30 18 0 7 -17 -2 1 LAND (KM) 523 491 458 466 474 537 607 632 694 791 928 1059 1220 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.6 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 108.7 108.6 108.8 109.0 109.8 110.9 112.2 113.7 115.3 117.2 119.0 120.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 3 5 6 7 7 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 11 15 19 18 16 15 12 10 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -17. -20. -23. -23. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 08/14/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 08/14/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY