* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902010 08/15/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 25 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 25 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 24 31 35 30 31 27 19 22 23 21 17 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 79 70 71 71 66 71 71 112 109 101 113 102 120 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.3 25.3 23.8 23.4 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 141 139 137 134 131 131 126 116 100 96 95 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.2 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 5 3 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 78 81 79 78 76 72 71 67 65 58 55 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 29 33 39 49 48 60 55 45 32 28 17 16 200 MB DIV 65 35 5 18 51 25 38 14 2 -13 -12 -8 -6 LAND (KM) 491 460 428 431 434 500 512 529 598 679 777 946 1113 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.4 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.5 108.4 108.7 108.9 109.8 111.1 112.6 114.3 116.1 118.1 120.2 122.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 5 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 13 17 14 9 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 17. 21. 23. 23. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -13. -19. -24. -27. -30. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902010 INVEST 08/15/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902010 INVEST 08/15/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY