* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052010 08/15/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 0 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 15 20 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 7 11 8 16 18 21 12 15 11 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 -3 -6 -5 -4 0 7 8 10 SHEAR DIR 329 333 329 315 295 305 292 290 287 264 295 301 311 SST (C) 30.6 30.8 30.9 31.2 31.3 31.5 31.4 30.5 29.1 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 168 169 169 169 170 170 151 141 137 138 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 148 156 160 166 166 147 122 112 107 109 109 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.0 -49.8 -49.6 -49.9 -49.9 -49.9 -50.0 -50.0 -50.2 -50.7 -50.4 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 13 14 8 10 5 9 5 11 9 13 8 700-500 MB RH 54 55 56 56 54 55 55 62 64 58 46 48 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 6 7 6 11 13 15 13 15 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -70 -59 -30 -43 -57 -13 -52 -31 -37 -16 -115 -47 -61 200 MB DIV 15 7 7 18 8 37 2 27 0 10 -12 14 46 LAND (KM) -234 -216 -197 -167 -145 -86 -111 -170 -300 -368 -382 -379 -383 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 32.4 32.2 32.0 31.8 31.4 31.4 31.9 32.9 33.5 33.6 33.5 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 85.5 85.6 85.7 86.1 86.5 87.6 88.9 90.5 91.3 91.5 91.6 91.8 92.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 5 2 0 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 39 37 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 22. 29. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 13. 12. 10. 9. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 6. 5. 7. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 3. 12. 22. 30. 33. 37. 35. 33. 32. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052010 FIVE 08/15/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052010 FIVE 08/15/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052010 FIVE 08/15/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)