* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052010 08/15/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 21 29 37 46 49 49 44 41 36 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 9 9 5 12 18 22 26 26 29 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -7 -2 -2 4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 14 25 37 313 336 310 336 288 295 280 300 282 311 SST (C) 31.0 31.2 31.4 31.6 31.7 31.7 31.4 30.1 28.6 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 169 169 169 170 170 144 134 130 131 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 154 160 166 169 169 168 141 118 109 106 107 108 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -50.0 -50.3 -49.9 -50.6 -50.2 -50.4 -50.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 12 13 8 7 11 3 10 3 12 5 14 3 700-500 MB RH 58 57 56 53 55 59 60 67 68 53 50 52 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 5 6 6 7 10 11 11 14 11 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -27 -36 -48 -32 -12 -45 -34 -31 -49 -83 -49 -41 200 MB DIV -4 -11 10 21 14 23 10 40 20 -13 -13 24 -30 LAND (KM) -191 -163 -134 -98 -67 -63 -108 -233 -401 -540 -618 -714 -680 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 31.6 31.4 31.3 31.1 31.0 31.4 32.5 34.0 35.3 36.2 37.1 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 84.9 85.1 85.3 85.8 86.2 87.4 88.8 90.1 90.4 89.9 89.0 87.2 84.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 6 7 7 7 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 40 42 47 49 40 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 13. 22. 28. 33. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 9. 17. 26. 29. 29. 24. 21. 16. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052010 FIVE 08/15/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052010 FIVE 08/15/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052010 FIVE 08/15/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)