* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052010 08/15/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 19 21 27 36 44 47 45 44 39 36 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 25 29 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 25 25 29 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 6 5 9 10 10 9 13 25 20 26 28 30 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -4 -2 -4 -1 -9 -2 0 -4 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 49 32 349 19 34 330 351 297 300 299 297 314 307 SST (C) 31.3 31.6 31.7 31.8 31.8 31.7 31.6 30.2 29.0 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 168 169 169 170 170 170 151 144 143 140 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 166 168 169 169 170 170 143 124 117 116 114 108 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.7 -50.0 -50.1 -49.8 -50.0 -50.1 -49.7 -50.0 -50.7 -51.5 -52.0 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 10 8 11 7 10 5 8 6 11 7 10 700-500 MB RH 58 58 55 57 60 59 60 68 67 52 54 54 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 5 6 8 10 11 11 13 9 10 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -20 -38 -27 3 -32 -14 -39 -12 -65 -62 -86 -49 200 MB DIV 3 18 3 -8 12 25 12 36 9 -1 -19 -7 46 LAND (KM) -143 -103 -62 -26 9 1 -88 -236 -389 -489 -579 -576 -507 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.0 30.7 30.6 30.4 30.4 31.2 32.5 34.0 35.1 35.8 36.2 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 84.9 85.2 85.4 85.9 86.3 87.6 89.0 89.7 89.4 88.2 86.7 84.9 83.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 39 42 45 49 14 1 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 12. 22. 28. 34. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 10. 7. 6. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 4. 2. 2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 1. 7. 16. 24. 27. 25. 24. 19. 16. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052010 FIVE 08/15/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052010 FIVE 08/15/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052010 FIVE 08/15/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)